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Market Watch – July 2010 edition

Richard — Wed, 21 Jul 2010 15:35:04 +0000

A review of market activity last month shows it’s continued transitioning into a market that’s more traditional. Without the effects of the federal government stimulus money that induced purchasers to buy now, altering their normal motivation, sales slowed from previous months. This was expected. But still it was surprising that the market was 30% off compared to the same time period in 2009.

While some would see this as negative news, I call it a normal reaction to market influences and a step in the right direction. From my vantage point, I see a stronger and more balanced market. More homes in higher price ranges are selling now which happened far less frequently a year ago. But mainly I hear and see more optimism in the voices and eyes of customers…and the phone rings more often.

For an in-depth analysis of last months market activity, including actual sales numbers, charts, graphs…take a look at my latest Market Watch Newsletter.

The most positive result of slower market activity is that interest rates dropped to astounding levels. Last time I checked, the rate for a 3o yr conventional loans with NO buy-down points was 4.5%. And for 15 yrs it’s 4.0%. The rate for an FHA loan with only a 3.5% down payment to purchase is 4.375%. Those are amazing rates. Very good timing especially when you consider home prices are more affordable than they have been for years. Great circumstances for anyone who wants to purchase a home or refinance.

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New Growth

Richard — Sat, 10 Jul 2010 11:00:38 +0000

Economically speaking, we’re not used to standing still here, let alone go backwards. We have a heritage of new growth and improvement that dates back to our very beginning as a nation, state and city. The lone exceptions that stand out were the 1930′s depression era, and far less dramatically, the last 2-3 years of negative or stagnant growth. Roosevelt got it right that the only thing to fear was fear itself. Perception…that’s the key. In both of these times, big business got out of control and let us all down, and big media played right along and drove the story until we collectively believed the worst.

Lesson to be learned? Again and always…perception is reality. Stay strong and positive. Listen to the media with a healthy sense of skepticism, realizing that they are in the business of creating a product. It’s main goal is to increase revenue from selling advertising, not especially to inform correctly. They’ve learned that the more dramatic the sound of their message, the more people will turn to look their way. Better ratings equals more advertising clout. I’m always skeptical of others who describe what the world is or will be when they make money doing it.

New growth is inevitable. People inherently want to grow, improve and be happy. It’s our nature. Follow your heart. Intend the world that you want and it will materialize and grow.

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Water Under the Bridge

Richard — Fri, 02 Jul 2010 16:51:20 +0000

There’s no question that mixed signals are still being sent, and no wonder that confusion is the result. The public still hears media accounts about foreclosed properties, short sales and homes that remain unsold. It’s important though to listen carefully to the words when you hear stories like this. Are they talking about just this local market?…or have they rolled the entire real estate market into one, which is usually the case. The truth is, the market can be wildly different depending on where you live. It’s more than just being confined to each state or even a city. Every neighborhood within each township has a different market. So when someone asks me “How’s the market?”, my response now is “Where do you live?”. Just my attempt to reshape the consciousness.

From my vantage point, the market is very active now with lots of sales. For the last year or two, sales were centered around low to medium priced properties. But now, higher priced homes are selling too. So to me, everything is saying the slow market is over. Water under the bridge. Time will tell, but there should be even more momentum coming. Lot’s of people have wanted to move but couldn’t the last few years. Pent-up demand will find it’s way into the flow.

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Market Watch – May 2010 edition

Richard — Thu, 13 May 2010 16:51:50 +0000

Just like driving a car, one of the ways to get perspective on where you are now is to look in the rear-view mirror. Market Watch does just that, providing a look back at the previous months activity. To say that April was active is, well, an understatement. Lots of people in the marketplace looking, purchasing, listing, selling. Over 3,000 homes sold in the nine county, central Indiana area that makes up the greater metropolitan Indianapolis market. That’s over a 33% increase compared to this same time period a year ago. Average prices rose as well. For more commentary and in-depth analysis including statistics, charts and graphs, take a look at my latest Market Watch Newsletter.

The pent-up demand for homes that has been building for the last few years, coupled with continuing low interest rates and tax incentives from the government, all contributed to the activity. There is an excitement returning in the market that I haven’t seen for a while. A confidence in what the future will bring. It will be interesting to see if and how that sustains itself now that the tax incentives have expired. Next month’s Market Watch will provide some answers!

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The Ripple Effect

Richard — Fri, 30 Apr 2010 04:00:25 +0000

As the clock winds down to the last hours of the last day of this month, I can hear Realtors all over the country collectively sounding a sigh of relief. The Home-Buyer Tax Credit gold rush is over. There never has been anything like it before in the real estate market that I can think of. Maybe the Oklahoma Land Grab in the late 1800′s? I know that there was a lot more offers written the last few months because of it…and business the last few weeks and days especially was brisk. To me it was wildly entertaining to see grown people running around crazy the last couple weeks trying to find something they wanted to buy. As always, the good homes were in short supply. I had several customers who wanted to take advantage of it, so yes, I was out there in the mix myself. I turned it into a game, a challenge…one you were trying to win for your customers. It ended up being fun.

It will take quite some time though before anyone will know what effect it had, if any, on the market and the economy. I personally think that hardly anyone bought a home because of this that wasn’t going to buy one anyway. They just did it a little sooner than they would have because of the Tax Credit. The ripple effect though may continue for a while as people whose homes were purchased then buy their next home…and those people then buy their next home…and so forth. That’s what this stimulus was trying to accomplish. We’ll see.

I can hardly wait to learn what the total bill to the American public for this will be. $6,500 to $8,000 credit for everyone who bought a home? A staggering amount I’m sure. Congress will just borrow more money to pay for it I suppose, like they have been doing for everything else. Of course, Congress is full of very smart people, right? They know what they are doing. All of us end up paying for all the borrowing ultimately…or more accurately our children, grandchildren…and so forth. The real ripple effect?

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Market Watch – April 2010 edition

Richard — Mon, 12 Apr 2010 23:45:53 +0000

Because market activity in this area is directly affected by the seasons, comparisons to the same time period of prior years is the most accurate way of comparing market activity. As an example, winter months are always slower than spring and summer no matter how the economy has affected things.

This month, the residential market in central Indiana continues to strengthen showing substantial improvement over last year during this same time period. The number of sales and average price increased for eight out of nine counties in the greater metropolitan Indianapolis area. Also, the average sale price of a home sold in central Indiana increased as well, with homes in Marion County increasing over seventeen percent from the March 2009 level.

For more detailed analysis of the local residential real estate market with actual number, charts and graphs, take a look at my latest Market Watch Newsletter. Market Watch is published every month. If you would like a subscription, let me know and we’ll send you a link to each new issue.

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Market Watch – March 2010 edition

Richard — Thu, 11 Mar 2010 19:26:56 +0000

The market in our area showed some impressive gains last month compared to the same month last year in several ways. Over 25% more homes sold in February 2010 than this same period last year. You have to keep in mind too that last month was one of the coldest and snowiest Februaries that we have had in a while, which usually helps to slow activity. The average sale price of a home in the nine county central Indiana area also rose, which indicates that sales of more expensive homes are now being added into the mix, raising the average price. In addition, the number of homes on the market dropped which means the market continues to head toward a more balanced market for both Buyers and Sellers.

For more detailed analysis of the local residential market with actual numbers, charts and graphs, view my latest Market Watch Newsletter.

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Market Activity

Richard — Thu, 04 Mar 2010 13:52:05 +0000

Here’s a graphic representation showing the number of homes on the market in the nine county greater Indianapolis metro area vs. the number of sales there over the last 13 months. The numbers add some general perspective. Comparatively, the market now is slow in relation to earlier months or prior years with record number of transactions…and terrific if you compare to certain months or earlier years with low activity. If you are thinking about selling your home or buying another one, does it really matter how the market as a whole compares to another one? Well, an overall view of the market has it’s place I suppose. But each county, city, neighborhood and home itself is unique…and every Buyer and Seller has a unique set of circumstances that motivate them. Sales happen one at a time. Some homes still command top dollar and others do not.

I guess what I would take away from this graph though is…the market is not red hot like earlier periods…but still, it’s a good market, with lots of homes being bought and sold. Generally speaking, maybe it’s not the best time for someone to ask as much as possible for their home. But the flip side is, they can probably buy one for less now too. So the net effect is about the same as always, and maybe even better if they are moving up in price range. The only thing that will change that though is interest rates. I wondering what a graph like this will look like later when the low interest rates we’ve been accustomed to for a while begin to climb…which they will at some point. Higher interest rate translates into less affordability. Lots of people will wish that they had made their move earlier.

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Market Watch – February 2010 edition

Richard — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 17:27:20 +0000

This last month saw a continued strengthening of the market in central Indiana. Overall number of sales were down slightly from last year at this time, but the average price of those homes selling were up…with some areas showing dramatic increases. Average sale price has been down in recent years, so this is a positive sign.

I’ve noticed that some home owners have mistakenly assumed that a lower average price indicates that the value of their own home has gone down too. That’s not necessarily true. A lower average sale price simply means that fewer expensive homes were sold and therefore not included and averaged into the other sales figures. Homes in the lower price ranges made up most of the sales. So last month’s figures show that more expensive homes are selling now too. What that means to me is that Buyers and Sellers of more expensive homes are beginning to feel more comfortable in the market again. For more detailed analysis of the local residential market with actual numbers, charts and graphs, view my latest Market Watch Newsletter.

The Market Watch Newsletter is published once every month and can be viewed on this website using the link provided. Or, just send a request to be added to our subscription list and we will email a link to each issue.

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Driving the Business

Richard — Sun, 07 Feb 2010 01:22:01 +0000

Sometimes you drive the business…and other times it drives you. That’s just the way it seems that the real estate business works, at least for me. Probably much like any business, the object is to get the phone to ring. I can visit, call, write or email people to contact them or stay in touch. I can host Open Houses, advertise in magazines or on websites, send out mass-mailing campaigns or walk around and pass out business cards all day long. All of that is what I call “Driving the Business”. But the only thing that really counts is when someone calls me. That’s when I know they are truly interested in something. Sign of the times though…sometimes now instead of calling, I’ll get an email or a text message!

Some days the phone will be dead…and I mean D-E-A-D. And then other days…it’s a good idea to have extra batteries charged and ready to swap-out. Today was one of those days when the business decided to drive me. You just have to hang on. But I’m not complaining. Being busy is a good problem to have. Either way though, busy or slow, I’ve learned to keep my emotions right in the middle. I just work…without expectations. I guess that comes with doing this 27 years.

The funny thing is though, today should have been slow. Didn’t people look out the window and see all the snow and ice everywhere? Instead agents were scheduling showings to look at listings. Sellers wanted to talk about selling. And Buyers wanted to look at homes. It’s not a coincidence that this all happened though. I can feel the market heating up. Despite it being the beginning of February with ice and snow…it’s heating up. Despite all the Gloom-and-Doomers, and Glass-Half-Emptys best efforts…it’s heating up.

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