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Market Watch – May 2009 edition

Posted on May 15th, 2009 by Richard. Categories: Market Conditions, Market Watch

scales-balanced-marketPrior to the last couple of years, the real estate market locally was more or less a Balanced Market. This means there were roughly about the same number of Sellers as there were Buyers. A Balanced Market can also be described as a Neutral Market where in a given price range there is between a 4 to 7-month supply of homes. A Sellers Market is considered to be when the supply of homes is less than a 4-month supply. And a Buyers Market is considered to be when there is a 7-month supply or greater. This is also referred to as the Absorption Rate.

Examples:  If there are 60 homes total for sale in the $250,000 to $300,000 price range and 20 homes sold last month, then there is a 3-month supply. (Sellers Market)   If there are 60 homes total for sale in the $250,000 to $300,000 price range and 10 homes sold last month, then there is a 6-month supply. (Neutral Market)   If there are 100 homes total for sale in the $250,000 to $300,000 price range  and 10 homes sold last month, then there is a 10-month supply. (Buyers Market)

How this Affects Pricing: When the supply to demand ratio of inventory is high (Buyers Market), pricing is typically MORE competitive among properties listed, with more Sellers competing for fewer Buyers. When the supply to demand ratio is low (Sellers Market) pricing is typically LESS competitive among properties listed, with more Sellers competing for fewer Buyers.

The market here lately has been improving from a decidedly Buyers Market towards a more Neutral Market. See my latest MarketWatch Newsletter for some real numbers, analysis and summary of last month’s market in our area. The low to moderate price ranges (up to $300,000) are already changing toward a more neutral market. The higher priced homes especially have a ways to go before there is a balance there.

This market has been an interesting one for sure. Some could say it’s definitely been slower. But there will always be periods of less activity from time to time. All that does though is create a pent-up demand which will be unleashed later on. So other years will have a higher amount of activity than normal.
So, if you are a Buyer…it’s a wonderful time now with lower than normal pricing generally, plus low interest rates (currently about 5% for 30-year fixed rate).  If you are a Seller…there are still lots of sales happening now. You just have to make sure your homes condition is near perfect and your pricing is competitive. If so, it will sell.
Will a bull market return again? Just hold on. It’s coming. Personally, I think we are on the verge of something magical happening in the market.

If you enjoyed this post, you may also be interested in:

  1. Absorbtion Rate
  2. Market Watch – July 2009 edition
  3. Market Watch – October 2009 edition

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